Underwood StakesOn form, Black Heart Bart should be winning this Group 1, which on paper is a substandard renewal of the Underwood Stakes.The Darren Weir-trained gelding hasnt finished further back than second in his past seven outings, this campaign winning the Memsie and running a close second in the Makybe Diva - both at Group 1 level.But there was little about his defeat by stablemate Palentino at Flemington that suggested Black Heart Bart wants the extra 200m of the Underwood.The fact remains that the gelding is yet to win past 1400m, and with The Cleaner engaged its likely this Underwood will be a solidly run 1800m.Black Heart Bart is too good to dismiss out of hand, but he cant be backed at the $2.40 presently offered by UBET.Chances must be given to Awesome Rock and Lucia Valentina, but value lies with the forgotten horse, Tarzino.Arguably the best staying three-year-old last season, Tarzino gets out to a more suitable trip here and can be forgiven his two plain efforts since resuming from a spell.Mick Prices charge is drawn wide but, with speed on up front, can find his feet near the tail and be saved for one last crack. Looks outstanding value for a horse that started $1.65 in an ATC Derby.Recommended Bet: Tarzino each-way at $10 with UBET.Sir Rupert Clarke StakesA very open looking Sir Rupert Clark Stakes, but when isnt that the case for a large-field handicap?Counterattack profiles well for the race and is the rightful favourite after an excellent first-up second in the Theo Marks at Rosehill.This edition of the Group 1 looks set to be run at a solid pace with several frontrunners engaged, meaning the ability to run out a strong 1400m is vital.Its possible that seven furlongs is the absolute limit of Counterattacks stamina, something that could also be said for his fellow market leaders Voodoo Lad and Under The Louvre.Stats of the race suggest four-year-olds with a light weight are the ones to be on, giving Counterattack a realistic hope, but it also casts the spotlight on three other runners:?Tivaci, Bon Aurum and Badawiya.Tivaci ran a fine second first-up in the Bobbie Lewis (traditionally a good guide for the Sir Rupert Clark) and has a (protest) win over Palentino to his name, while Bon Aurum has returned to racing in fine fashion.Both hold good chances but at a huge price it might be worth siding with Badawiya, a mare of great talent who can be forgiven her first-up failure at Flemington (pulled early; not much room in the straight). Notably, she drops from 59kg to 52kg for this assignment.Shes drawn wide in gate 13, but half of the past 30 winners of this race have jumped from double figures. Badawiya is at her most effective when held up and it may be no hindrance on Saturday, in a race of good pace, to be out the back early with plenty of galloping room.Recommended Bet: Badawiya each-way at $35 with UBETOver the OddsRosehill: Race 7, No.4 Pearls. $12 with UBET.The hugely popular, but somewhat overrated, First Seal makes her long-awaited return in the Group 2 Golden Pendant, meaning punters will get value if they fancy something to beat the favourite.Pearls has had the benefit of two runs this time in, giving her a fitness advantage over most of her rivals, winning at Group 3 level first-up before failing in the Sheraco Stakes when never on the track from a wide alley.The half-sister to former topliner Helmet has drawn the rails on Saturday and maps beautifully in a race lacking speed. A genuine knockout chance for the in-form Godolphin camp.Caulfield: Race 9, No.11 Rageese. $6 with UBET.Appears to be plenty of negatives here for Rageese: has never won first-up, has never won over 1100m and has drawn barrier 16 of 16.In the gallopers favour, however, is his abundant talent and record for new trainer Darren Weir: three starts for two big wins and one defeat that should be wiped from the formbook.This scamper has pace galore on paper, and that should suit a backmarker like Rageese. Whereas stablemate and likely favourite Hellbent will push forward from his similarly wide draw, Rageese will be saved for one last shot under the postage stamp of 52.5kg. Look for him to finish over the top.Under the OddsRosehill: Race 1, No.1 Antonio Giuseppe. $3.60 with UBET.A Chris Waller-trained favourite whos won three on end would be many a punters idea of a good start to the day, but Antonio Giuseppe looks vulnerable in race one at Rosehill.The handicapper is now having his way with Antonio Giuseppe - after Koby Jenningss claim the gelding will still shoulder 59kg - and further minuses are gate 11 of 11 and a trip hes never won over before.Undeniably progressive with four wins from just seven starts, and may well win, but looks no value at all.Best BetRosehill Race 8, No.5 Old North. $4.20 with UBET.Not much depth in the Group 2 Shannon Stakes, and Godolphin look to have a great chance in the shape of progressive Old North.Proved himself a quality middle-distance colt in the autumn, and that being the case looks thrown in with 53kg against a field comprising largely exposed types.Ignore Old Norths first-up flop in the Theo Marks - the horse pulled too hard for his own good - and if Tim Clark can find a spot from the second-outside stall, this striking son of Lonhro should be winning.Lay of the DayCaulfield: Race 4, No.3 Pay Up Bro. $2.80 with UBET.Will not be short of admirers after winning his past two, but both races were much easier than the task he faces on Saturday.In opposition is a number of unexposed types with current form of equal or greater merit than Pay Up Bros.Whats more, the grey jumps sharply from 1400m to 2000m - a journey which found him out as a three-year-old and is far from certain to suit on Saturday. A false favourite.Multi of the WeekendMoonee Valley: (Fri) Race 3, No.4 EGYPT - PLACE @ $1.60Caulfield:?Race 4, No.8 KEVINS TIME - PLACE @ $2.60Rosehill:?Race 7, No.4 PEARLS - PLACE @ $3.45Rosehill:?Race 8, No.5 OLD NORTH - PLACE @ $1.61Multi price: $23.10 with UBET.UBET Market MoversEAGLE FARMRACE MOVER1 Denoninator $2.70→$2.30→$2.25 ($2,500 @ $2.30)2 Double Superlative $12→$103 Heza Bobby Dazzler $7.00→$6.004 No bets or movements of note5 Sony Legend $4.80→$4.206 Mr Wind $3.00→$2.80 ($1,000 (x2) & $500 (x3) @ $3.00)7 No bets or movements of note8 Bushy $6.00→$4.40 ($500 @ $6.00)8 Legendary Luke $13→$10ROSEHILLRACE MOVER1 Antonio Giuseppe $7.00→$3.60 ($700 @ $4.00)2 No bets or movements of note3 Shotgun Roulette $6.00→$5.00→$4.80 ($500 @ $6.00)4 Invincibella $%.00→$4.604 Smart Amelia $4.40→$3.80 ($1,000 @ $4.40)4 Fabvier $14→$10→$9.00 ($500 @ $14)5 No bets or movements of note6 Prized Icon $3.80→$3.60 ($500 @ $3.80)6 Swear $5.50→$4.60→$4.40 ($1,000 & $500 @ $5.50, $500 @$4.60 & $1,000 & $500 @ $4.40)6 High Mist $4.40→$4.00 ($1,000 @ $4.40)6 Honeywine $19→$117 First Seal $3.20→$3.30 ($500 (x2) @ $3.30)7 Tycoon Tara $8.50→$8.007 Heavens Above $5.50 ($400ew @ $5.50/$2.00)7 Caped Crusader $7.00→$6.008 No bets or movements of note9 Extensible $4.60→$4.40CAULFIELDRACE MOVER1 Jalan Jalan $6.00→$5.00 ($800 @ $6.00)2 Black Tomahawk $4.50→$3.502 The Bandit $4.80→$4.203 Pilote Dessai $5.00 ($500 @ $5.00)4 No bets or movements of note5 Whispering Brook $5.00→$4.20→$3.25 ($1,000ew @ $4.80/$1.95, $1,000 & $500 @ $4.80, $3,500 @ $4.20 & $800 @ $3.50)6 Sacred Elixir $6.00→$5.50→$5.50 ($1,000 @ $5.50)6 Evacuation $5.00 ($1,000 @ $5.00)7 Fast N Rocking $41→$267 Counterattack $4.00→$3.80 ($1,250 & $800 @ $3.80)7 Tivaci $12→$11 ($1,250 @ $12)7 Bon Arum $7.00→$6.00 ($1,000ew @ $7.00/$2.45)8 Black Heart Bart $2.70→$2.408 Awesome Rock $8.00→$6.00 ($500ew @ $8.00/$2.40)8 Tavago $15→$13 ($750 @ $15)8 Lucia Valentina $4.20→$4.009 Sheidel $6.50→$5.509 InzNOut $6.00→$4.809 Hellbent $4.40→$3.50MORPHETTVILLERACE MOVER1 Maconsilia $5.50→$5.00 ($500 @ $5.50)2 No bets or movements of note3 No bets or movements of note4 No bets or movements of note5 No bets or movements of note6 Galaxy Gazer $5.00 ($500 @ $5.00)7 No bets or movements of note8 No bets or movements of note Wholesale Adidas Ultra Boost 2018 . 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Cheap Adidas Ultra Boost China .ca looks back at the stories and moments that made the year memorable. If a players fantasy hoops value was a rough equivocation of his perceived real-life NBA value, our jobs would be cake. Life would be one long Midseason Fantasy All-Stars column.Playoff performance would drive fantasy value. Championship rings accrued would drive fantasy value. Signing a big free agent contract would drive fantasy value. Points scored per game would drive a plurality of fantasy value. Draft position, defensive intensity, SportsCenter appearances, college program and market size would all drive fantasy value.Heres the trick: all of those factors do drive fantasy valuation, but not in a constructive manner.Instead, all of these factors combine to create noise. This noise begets variations in perceived fantasy value versus actual fantasy value.The result is perpetually overrated players like DeAndre Jordan, perennially underrated players like Mike Conley and, more often than not, solid values such as Paul Millsap.Winning in fantasy is simple. If you roster more undervalued players than your fellow owners ... you win. If you roster more overvalued players ... they win.Dont get caught up in name value. Stick to the numbers.Our job is to filter out the noise and focus only on eight or nine categories of statistical impact, and the factors that drive production in said categories.We here at ESPN do an industry-leading job in pinpointing fantasy value. Its a fact. Our tried and true preseason rankings represent just how much work goes into creating a superlative Draft Kit. These rankings are saturated with projections you can take to the bank of your choice.All the same, theres nothing wrong with a dollop of healthy disagreement. Every happy and well-adjusted family has the occasional behind-the-scenes pre-Thanksgiving argument.More often than not, my disagreements with our preseason rankings are fueled by atypical positional production. Players at certain positions tend to simultaneously excel and disappoint in certain categories.Point guards typically produce a surfeit of assists, 3s, steals and solid free throw percentages. They tend to suffer from a lack of rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage. Centers typically produce a surplus of blocks, rebounds and boffo field goal percentages. They tend to lack in assists, steals and free throw percentage.When players at certain positions deviate from these norms, they offer categorical surprises -- positive and negative.Lets take a quick jaunt through my most underrated and overrated players this draft season.Underrated players in the top 10In the first round, every single slot counts. Just moving up or down a couple of draft slots can win or lose your league.Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors (ESPN Rank: 4)I think were overweighting the Kevin Durant effect on Currys production. Curry is projected to drop about four points per game, less than one rebound per game and about a third of an assist per game.If those predictions hold relatively true, I have Curry still at No. 2 overall (behind newly minted PG James Harden). Currys otherworldly combination of 3-point production (projected 5.1 per game in 2016-17) and true shooting percentage (66.9 percent in 2015-16) could end up pushing him back into the top overall slot.Curry is utterly dominant in 3-point production, double any other player in the NBA save for Klay Thompson and Damian Lillard. When a player can win a category on his own while delivering elite production in multiple surrounding categories -- especially while bolstering efficiency -- you can forgive drops in volume.Hassan Whiteside, PF, Miami Heat (ESPN Rank: 13)Whiteside is elite in two categories: rebounds and field goal percentage. Like Curry, he occupies a one-man tier in a single category. Whiteside nearly doubles the blocks potential of every other player in the NBA.When you factor in that blocks are one of scarcer statistics in fantasy, Whitesides fantasy value climbs into the top 10. His free throw percentage (.650 in 2015-16) is somewhat disquieting, but was a big improvement over the .500 he laid down in 2014-15.Overrated players in the top 10Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (ESPN Rank: 6)I have Paul valued between No. 9 and No. 10 overall (in non-turnover leagues). Im not projecting the drop based on possibility of injury. (For the purposes of this column, Im assuming everyone stays reasonably ambulatory. If we got into whom we thought was going to get injured, this would turn into a different, darker column.)Pauls drop is due to slight, predictable slides in three categories. Looking over his past three seasons, Paul is trending down ever so slightly in assists, steals and field goal percentage. As long as Paul stays around 10 assists per game, hes a top-10 player. But if, in his age-31 season, his steals rate starts dropping from 2.0 per night to 1.5 per night? Thats a problem because the secret sauce in Pauls Hall Of Fame value has always marinated in his undervalued elite steals production.Underrated players in the top 40Victor Oladipo, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder (ESPN Rank: 27)As of this writing, Oladipo is a top-20 fantasy player. This isnt an educated guess. Over the last third of 2015-16, Oladipo quietly posted top-20 value.He overcame a developmental situation in Orlando, slogged through inconsistent minutes and quietly built one of last seasons most improved fantasy portfolios. Now Oladipos going to ride shotgun next to Russell Westbrook? Reap all of the spacing Westbrook creates? Vacuum up thee touches -- and open looks -- Kevin Durant left behind? (And yes.dddddddddddd I know Durant will get even more space in Golden State, but Im touting Oladipo here).Were talking Westbrook lite, across-the-board fantasy value with no particular statistical weakness, elite steals and solid (for a SG) free throw percentage. Dont forget SG is looking particularly thin this draft season. If Oladipo eventually qualifies at PG as well -- another thin position -- itll just be another subtle plus.Nikola Jokic, C, Denver NuggetsIf the sight of Jokics minutes per game inching above 30 a night doesnt warm the cockles of your old and embittered fantasy heart, its time to explore other hobbies. This young man doesnt have a single statistical flaw. Double-doubles, blocks, assists, steals, 3s, terrific percentages: Jokic contributes across the board. He qualifies at a position of scarcity. Hes 2004 Andrei Kirilenko with some extra height.Jokic has momentum -- not playoff momentum (an outlier); end of 2015-16 momentum that translated into Olympic momentum. Jokic is a top-30 player right now, end of story.Overrated players in the top 40Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (ESPN Rank: 11)In reality, Lillard and C.J. McCollum are a great basketball pair. In 2015-16, Lillard combined his 23.7 points, 7.1 assists, 2.8 3s and 4.4 rebounds with McCollums 20.3 points, 4.0 assists, 2.5 3s, 3.1 rebounds and 1.1 steals to deserved acclaim.Volume-based acclaim.If you look a little closer, youll notice Lillard is not the kind of player you want to overdraft. Hes quietly inefficient.He sports a scary .419 field goal percentage. Lillards 3-point production (.375) doesnt effectively offset such a low field-goal percentage because Lillard takes (and misses) too many mid-range to long-range jumpers. His 3-point percentage is higher than his percentage from 3 to 15 feet. Almost 15 percent of his attempts are from 16 feet to the 3-point line.A .419 field goal percentage. Lillard launches 20 shots a night. Thats a lot of drag. The effect is enough to knock Lillard down by 8-10 draft slots.Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers (ESPN Rank: 23)This isnt about the punch. If I was folding in propensity toward injury and/or suspension, Griffins actual value would drop by two full rounds. It isnt about his formerly atrocious, now merely mediocre free throw shooting. Griffin has improved at the line.Griffin simply doesnt help out enough in the defensive categories to warrant a top-25 pick. A top-25 big man needs to chip in with at least a block and/or a steal per night. The once-gaudy points and rebounds are subtly trending downward.Ignore the hype. Griffin is an early fourth-round pick.Al Horford, C, Boston Celtics (ESPN Rank: 25)Horford is one of my most-drafted players of the past five seasons. Every year, he tends to a half round later than he should.His being underrated stemmed from three factors: Being more of an efficiency guy, he excels in out-of-position production, and the Hawks style tends to share the wealth up and down their lineup.His 3.2 assists per game in 2015-16 was one of the best (for a center) in basketball. He emphasized 3-point production, shooting .344 percent from deep and converting 1.1 3s per game. While his overall FG% was over 50 percent, Horford also shot an atypical (for a big man) 80 percent from the line.Its hard to be overhyped in Atlanta. After signing the second-biggest free agent deal of the summer, Horford is riding a wave of hype.Now Horfords coming off a much ballyhooed free-agent deal. Hes going to Boston, playing for it coach Brad Stevens and joining a team that should enter the season as the second-best team in the East.A team with a very deep rotation. Thats what gives me pause. While much of Horfords value is also efficiency based, you have to add some volume to give those ratios some weight.The Celtics are deeper up front than the Hawks. Stevens egalitarian system is not a good environment to add volume. Throw in that this is Horfords age-30 season, and youve looking at a player thats going to go 5-10 spots higher than he should.Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers (ESPN Rank: 34)I dont buy that Love is line for a bigger role in the Cavs offense. In reality, Love is a couple less rebounds per game away from becoming Ryan Anderson 2.0. For a guy ranked 34th overall, thats not a compliment.DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors (ESPN Rank: 42) DeRozan goes a little higher than he should because hes a points per game guy and a volume guy. In fantasy, his lack of 3-point production drags him down by about half a round.Underrated outside of the top 40DAngelo Russell, PG, Los Angeles Lakers (ESPN Rank: 66)Russell should be the biggest immediate beneficiary of playing in a post-Kobe Bryant universe. Kobes last lap around the NBA after All-Star Weekend took attention away from Russells second-half improvement.Kobes departure wasnt the only exodus that will benefit Russell. Byron Scott is also gone. Developing young upside is in. New coach Luke Walton is saying all the right things about Russells role headed into the season. Still only 20, Russells usage rate should take a nice leap from the 23.5 he posted during his (somewhat tumultuous) rookie campaign. I expect all of his volume-based numbers to improve, and his efficiency (13.22 rookie PER) has nowhere to go but up. Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys Wholesale NFL Jerseys Jerseys From China Wholesale NFL Jerseys Cheap NFL Jerseys Cheap Jerseys ' ' '